The Muslim News - New report implies cautious optimism for Pakistan

Issue 249, Friday 29 January 2010 - 13 Safar 1431

New report implies cautious optimism for Pakistan

By Shaahid Jaffer

Pakistan is to turn further towards Islam in coming years, but will reject the Taliban, according to a new report published by the Legatum Institute on January 12. The 64 page report, by the London-based think-tank, also makes a series of forecasts on Pakistan’s economy, as well as its relations with India, China, and the US over the next one to three years.

The report hails the shift in Pakistani public opinion away from the Taliban and in support of the Government’s efforts to deal with the militants. This change has been attributed to the terrorist attacks on Punjab as well as Taliban-related militancy in the Buner district, just 60 miles from the capital Islamabad.

Jonathon Paris, the author of the report, concludes that “fundamentalism” is unlikely to be a “successful political force that can challenge the state militarily,” but also claims that there is a likelihood of “political and quasi-political organisations” moving Pakistan “further towards radical Islam.”

“Speculation of a Taliban takeover dramatically overestimates the willingness of the political and military elites to surrender power to the Taliban,” says the report.

Nonetheless, Paris predicts that the Taliban will be able to increase their power in areas should they avoid crossing certain red lines; such as militant presence in the frontier which prevents Pakistani Governmental influence in Afghanistan. If they remain patient and do not cross these red lines then Paris states that official acceptance of Taliban presence will increase.

The report forecasts a “subtle power shift from a secular pro-Western society to an Islamist anti-American one,” but says that Pakistan is likely to “muddle through”, with its powerful army having a hand behind the scenes in terms of foreign and security policy.

With regards to Indo-Pak relations, the report warns of another terrorist attack in the form of the November 2008 Mumbai bombings, with the possibility of sequential attacks, including perhaps one on India’s “political core including the parliament and political leadership.”

The publication’s forecast for the US is similarly gloomy, noting that “US and UK leverage over Pakistan is not growing (but rather) decreasing. Pakistani society is moving toward anti-Americanism and towards Sharia law.”

American aid towards Pakistan may also be decreased by the US Congress if it appears to be “mismanaged, lost or grossly ineffective”, which would obviously negatively influence the relationship between the two countries.

The report backs a proposal for NGOs, rather than Government ministries to distribute aid, along with a recommendation that accounting firms monitor and audit said distribution.

On a brighter note, the report also forecasts Pakistan’s population increase to lead to its overtaking Indonesia and becoming home to more Muslims than any other country.

Absent a major and unexpected disaster, such as an economic crisis leading to the fall of the elected Government, a severe downturn in Afghanistan or any war or major Taliban/militant offensive in Punjab, Pakistan is “not destined to become a failed state”, concludes the report.