The Muslim News

Is there a plot to topple Kibaki?

31-12-2003

By Njonjo Kihuria

The East African Standard (Nairobi):

Is there a plot within the governing National Rainbow Coalition to topple President Kibaki? Yesterday Members of Parliament were quick to deny reports of a plot to impeach the President.

The plot was said to involve a series of political manoeuvres, which would culminate in a vote of no confidence in Parliament.

Reports say that the National Alliance (Party) of Kenya, aware of these machinations, has also thrown down the gauntlet and launched its own counter strategy.

But the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), NAK's partner in the coalition, denied any part in the alleged plot.

The opening salvo in the plot, according to the reports, was expected to be fired by a nominated MP.

The MP was understood to have been working on a Private Member's Bill to change the Constitution to pave the way for the impeachment of a President by a simple parliamentary majority and without precipitating a General Election.

One of the LDP's spokesmen, Mbita MP Otieno Kajwang', asked NAK to stop panicking. He said his party was not interested in challenging the current administration.

"Let them not panic as the only war we are interested in is the one of 2007," Kajwang' said.

He asked his NAK colleagues to give the LDP room to organise for the next General Election. "If (President) Kibaki stands in 2007, we will defeat him," he vowed.

LDP was said to be counting on disaffection with the Government to lobby for the passing of a constitutional amendment.

This strategy, however, was seen as hinging too much on the opening of Parliament, an event that is determined entirely by President Kibaki.

It is believed that once the Bill becomes law, the belligerents within Narc would draw up a list of allegations against President Kibaki.

Chief among these would be the President's alleged inability to govern on account of his allegedly failing health and what is being referred to as betrayal of the constitutional review - thus forcing a vote on the issue.

As a political sweetener to entice Kanu and Ford-People, LDP is said to have proposed to guarantee immunity from prosecution for key members of the Moi administration.

It was also speculated that it would allow for substantial power-sharing that would put both parties on a stronger footing for the 2007 General Election.

However, Kanu nominated MP Mutula Kilonzo dismissed the alleged strategy as of no immediate value Parliament does not resume until March or April.

NAK is reportedly working behind the scenes on a counter-strategy to rout the LDP brigade from Government by striking a deal of its own with the new Kanu/Ford-P coalition.

The coalition is understood to be positioning itself to join the Government before 2007 - and maybe as early as at the beginning of 2004.

Reports said that the new coalition has toyed with the idea of teaming up with the LDP on the no confidence motion to bundle out President Kibaki, even at the risk of an early election.

The Nyachae coalition is understood to be excited at the prospect of being part of a government of national unity in the current parliamentary term.

But even with that in mind, it is also said to be cautious about striking a deal with LDP, given that previous arrangements between Raila on one hand and Kanu and Ford-P boss Simeon Nyachae on the other, have ended acrimoniously.

Equally, a bruising battle in the House, where they would need to garner a two-thirds majority to change the Constitution - a very difficult feat - is not a very appealing prospect.

On the other hand, an arrangement with NAK would require far less effort and political blood-letting and would neatly see top figures in the new coalition in Government in short order.

Sources in Kanu and NAK confirmed that "moderates" on both sides were in talks and appeared confident that the Nyachae coalition was headed for Government.

The sacrificial lamb would be LDP which, under this arrangement, would be bundled out government.

NAK and the Nyachae coalition would then form a government of national unity, which would see Nyachae and Kanu "moderates", among them Uhuru Kenyatta, appointed to the Cabinet.

Mutula said he had heard that NAK was talking to some people in Kanu with the ultimate aim of forming a government of national unity, but he was not party to the moves.

A Narc Nominated MP, who declined to be named, said informal meetings were taking place between NAK and the new coalition but would not divulge their purpose.

The MP said a motion of impeachment had no chance of success because a two-thirds majority would be impossible to marshal.

The LDP Secretary-General, Mr Joseph Kamotho, denied any knowledge of moves by his party to bring a vote of no confidence motion or impeach the President.

He claimed that the rumour had been started by "people who have lost direction". "These are people who have lost direction," he retorted.

He could not confirm alliance building between his party and the Nyachae coalition, but noted that the Kiambu Kanu MPs were "with them", meaning NAK.

He was referring to a recent visit to Kiambu by President Kibaki during which MPs from the district, led by Kiambaa's Njenga Karume, expressed willingness to work with the Government.

Kamotho, however, wondered whether the alleged alliance between the Nyachae coalition and NAK "had the numbers" to pull off any moves against LDP.

Ford-P's Henry Obwocha declined to comment, promising to do so in the "near future".

Reports said NAK and Nyachae coalition have held a series of meetings, the most recent being two weeks ago at which the issue of the Bomas National Constitutional Conference was raised.

NAK is reported to have tried to convince Kanu and Ford-P of the futility of the Bomas process, where the majority of delegates appear to be supporting the Raila/Ghai axis, which is keen to create the position of prime minister

At the last meeting, reports said it was agreed that the new coalition would be the first to publicly broach the issue of doing away with Bomas.

This would give the call a new dimension and possibly carry more weight. Calls to ditch Bomas by NAK hawks have been too frequent and are apparently not being taken seriously.

And in their eagerness, Constitutional Affairs minister Kiraitu Murungi and his National Security colleague Chris Murungaru jumped the gun and talked about the need to derail Bomas before Nyachae and Uhuru had the chance to do so.

This, it is reported, has caused some unease and mistrust of NAK within the Kanu/Ford-P axis.

And the softening of the Government's stance towards former President Moi, as evidenced by recent statements by Ethics and Governance Permanent Secretary John Githongo, is viewed by some as one way of trying to pre-empt the coalition building between LDP and Kanu.

Hard-liners in Kanu are irked by a NAK adviser and a top civil servant whom they accuse of relentlessly pushing for the prosecution of Kanu bigwigs in or associated with the former regime. They are also furious at the sacking of pro-Moi officers from the central Government and parastatals.

They claim this group wants to bring their empires tumbling down through the re-possession of their wealth.

However, there are those in Kanu who have never forgiven Raila for "doing them in" last year.

Raila is credited with playing a big role in the defeat of Kanu both by campaigning for Kibaki and leading the rebellion against Moi.

Sources allied to this group say Nyachae has been proposed as a "strictly one term president", while Uhuru will become his principal deputy.

Raila will become the prime minister and his LDP wing will get all the posts as contained in the pre-election Memorandum of Understanding it initially signed with NAK.

However, senior State House officials dismissed the no confidence machinations as "old", saying rumours of such moves have been in the air "for the past six months".

Kanu official Josephine Ojiambo said she was not aware of coalition talks between NAK and Kanu/Ford-P. But she said the new coalition was talking to both sides "on issues of national unity".

Yesterday, Kajwang' dismissed the possibility of an alliance between NAK and the Nyachae-led coalition, saying if they came together "there would be no policy and hence no government. Such a move will ruin what NAK has been saying it stands for".